Kindly "BEAR" with me……


All you so called new gurus of the stock markets ……Welcome to the grim realities of the stock market!!!. The stock market has taken its 2nd bigger ever hit sliding over 951 points on Monday, 17th March 2008.The major falls of sensex have been –

21-1-2008: 1408 pts
17-3-2008: 951 pts
3-3-2008: 900 pts
22-1-2008: 875 pts
11-2-2008: 834 pts
18-5-2006: 826 pts
13-3-2008: 771 pts
18-10-2007: 717 pts
18-1-2008: 687 pts

The sensex recorded its peak on January 8, 2008 touching 20873. On 17th March i.e 3 months later the sensex is at 14800 levels ie a fall of 29% (6073 pts).Oil prices have crossed the $100 barrier. Gold has shot past Rs.12000 giving a clear indication of the tough times ahead. I, for one, am not at all complaining about the scenario – for this was something that was waiting to happen – anyone who did not anticipate this was clearly blind as a bat and stupid as an owl.

But what pisses me off is the so called “stock market pundits” turning a blind eye towards the pressure build up and thereby failing to issue the clarion call to the investors. What were the so called tie toting smug looking research analysts (who were in anycase being paid many times over their real intellectual worth) doing all these while? It is only after the meltdown happens that these stupid dilbert like characters come out and say that the scenario looks bleak — shuttttt up… now even my 10 year old son can say that the situtation is grim – I dont need a overpaid, Mr.know it all to tell me that on CNBC.

Some of the so called big shots (or people in the know as I prefer to call them) have issued statement which go as under (the quotes have appeared in ET on 18th March 2008- just for the records)(the words in italics are my comments and not theirs!!!:-
Mr. R. Venkataraman (ED – India infoline) says “It will take some time for the sentiment to change (ha ha as if this is something new). There is a need for large institutions like LIC to start buying frontliners to provide a filip to sentiment (Why Mr Venkataraman? LIC ne market ka theka le rakha hai kya? When you were filling your pockets during the boom time did you pass on some of your positions to LIC telling them to keep the profits – Why should they come to the rescue of the market – so that to ensure that you make a profit ? SORRRRRRY SIR – that is not what LIC is there for).

Mr. Motilal Oswal (CMD Motilal Oswal Securities) (This one takes the cake) – This is time to accumulate good quality stocks from medium to long term perspective. They can go for old economy stocks like GSK, Bharti etc (In my humble opinion old economy stocks meant TISCO, ACC etc since when has Bharti become a old economy stock)…. and Now comes the punch line – read this – ” Markets have overreacted to global events.But that does not mean that they cannot go further. Now I am confused – should I buy old economy stocks or should I wait for them to go down.

I mean you dont need to be a genius to tell someone that the markets may either go up or it may go down… DUHHHH.. what kind of a view is that — even my ghar ka kaamwaali bai can tell that — gimme a break Mr. Oswal.This only proves that no one … I repeat no one has any clue about which direction the market is going to take – If that is the case then may I call upon CNBC to please invite my kaamvali bai and ask her to give an opinion on the markets – my apologies to the viewers that she wont sport a tie nor will she speak in broken english and she wont refer to complex charts – in any case to tell that a stock market will either go up or down you dont need any of these.

Mr. Venkataraman’s call to LIC seems totally devoid of any logic – why doesnt he call upon the Pvt Sector Mutual funds to start buying (if he sees value in today’s stock prices?) – these guys wont because they are worried about their annual fat bonuses getting hit – it is the bechara LIC fund manager who is any way not entitled to the hefty bonuses that is being called upon so that the market can be revived and the private sector fund managers can look forward to a vacation in Seychelles out of their hard earned Bonus …(Sic) . Talking about the private sector brings me to another interesting development – The Bear Sterns Collapse —So much for the young investment turks who give an appearance that they started wearing ties even before their momma taught them how to tie diapers….armed with a degree from one of the management institutes these Mr. Know it all think that the only way the market can go is up – and start designing fancy instruments and have no inkling about the risks associated with them . Having seen two scams and over 17 years in the capital market my only word to them – “Kiddos…….welcome to world of MEN”

Now we will see the other repurcussions happening on the employment front in the financial sectors – the brokerages and investment houses will soon implement pay slashes which will result in a myriad of problems to these financial sector kiddos who have anyway leveraged their present earnings many times over to buy plush houses and fancy cars.. now we will see pink slips being issued in a lot of broking houses who will start cutting down costs if there is a further market slide.

It is also rumored that DBS of singapore has instructed its traders to limit its exposure to Lehman Bros. So the goldman sachs, JPs of the world be careful…. you might not be god’s gift to mankind after all .

I wonder why none of these pundits actually gave a sell call when these signals started originating – I mean we all knew US was entering into a recession, we all knew that oil prices was spiralling up fuelling inflation, we all knew gold prices was shooting up giving a clear indication that global investors were jittery against currencies especially dollars, we all knew that dollar was getting hit against all major currencies especially Yen… hey wait a minute – I have been saying we all knew – am I missing something out here – dont these pundits read newspapers or do they read some other news paper I am not aware of….Till last week I was receiving research reports from some big brokerage houses recommending a value buy based on FUNDAMENTALS. I am tempted to quote a oft repeated joke in the market circles ” FUNDAMENTALS pe mat jaana – pehle FUND jaayega phir tum MENTAL ho jaaoge” !!!!!!

What we lack in this market are people who are willing to stick out their neck and say with conviction which way the market will go – if they cant take a view then let them have conviction to tell that they are clue less rather than pretending to be the nose in the air know it all gurus.

My view – the market is going to be in a bear grip for atleast 6 months – and my reasons – US recession, failure to control oil prices might triger global inflation, slow down in new projects due to bearish sentiments in the financial sector…Interest rates definitely looking to go up in the near term and with March around the corner lot of banks will have to book losses on mark to market procedures on their investments – so they might be loathe to taking fresh buying – If I am proven wrong then so be it – I will be a happy person because my portfolio value would increase and If i am proven right – I can always proclaim “I said so”!!!! . So it is heads I win tails you lose……..


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