Wake up and smell the daisies

For all those who are still living in a fools paradise, thinking that everything will be hunky dory .. wake up and smell the daisies. No point in behaving like an ostrich with its head in the sand hoping that the storm will go away. The crash in the market is real and here to stay for some time. I have been time and again telling that we are likely to see rough seas ahead – so brace yourself to be hit by a hurricance. Oil has crossed $145. My target for oil was $150 .. now that this almost been reached where next? Unless the governments are able to successfully pressurise OPEC to control price rises my call is $170. Inflation crosses 12%. Consumers are reeling under the impact of price rises. Stock market is testing the lower limits of 12000. Another repo rate hike seems inevitable because smart investors are taking advantages of the arbitrage opportunities given by a low repo rate and the high call money rates. Oil bonds are another disaster stories. Political stability is at a premium – the left seems to be hell bent on pulling out the plugs. If a Samajwadi – Congress combine were to emerge then chances are that the Reliance group (both Anil and Mukesh faction) would emerge healthy. Anil is close to Amar Singh and Mukesh’s proximity to congress is too well known. FII’s have been instructed to keep out of India for some more time. The selling pattern in the market in the past two days is something that needs to be analysed. FII’s have not sold, MF’s have not sold, retail investors cannot sell at these levels as they have all entered at a higher level- so it seems that the selling has been orchestrated by a few big corporates and individuals in the know about the political imbroglio that is brewing in the centre.

So, for all those who are thinking that these are good levels to buy.. please wait and watch before you commit hara-kiri.You may be better off donating that money to charities – atleast you get a better tax break!!!!

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